International Volcano Research Centre Apache Junction, Arizona USA

Forecasting the time, place and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the most difficult goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. The current goal in forecasting volcanic eruptions and the precept of this analysis, is to provide the best possible accurate eruption forecasts based on the geologic history of the volcanoes under study as well as the day-to-day vital signs of volcanoes in terms of surface deformation, micro-earthquakes, temperature, gas emissions, tilt and other measurements. Data is gathered, daily, from all available volcano observatories and/or geophysical agencies about the world. The software package "ERUPTION" Pro 10.7 attempts to achieve these goals. "ERUPTION" Pro 10.7 performs analysis on entered volcano data from both historical and current eruption data as obtained from the observatories and/or geophysical agencies. It produces three forecasts; a statistically projected next eruption year, the next forecasted beginning eruption year with an >50% probability of eruption occurrence, and finally, the next forecasted beginning eruption year with an >95% probability of eruption occurrence. Since the last output of this forecast, several new and improved algorithms and corrections, etc. have been incorporated into "ERUPTION" Pro 10.7 resulting in accurate forecasts. They are reflected in the Tables below. Table 1, below, presents the year 2009 forecast. Tables 2 & 3 present the >50% & >95% probability forecast profiles respectively. The forecast does not include submarine type volcanoes. This forecast will be updated periodically as additional data is received and confirmed. The best source of forecasting is with the local volcano observatory as they are in the best position with the absolute latest data and of course, direct observation of the volcano.

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