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Eruption Results
EruptionPlease keep in mind that this program is in no way infallible, and only as good as the data used in creating it. This programme may now be used for volcanic hazard prediction or disaster mitigation by the public under the direction & guidance of an appropriate volcanologist or scientist. For more information on volcanic safety, please see the IAVCEI safety report.
The present executable version, is called "ERUPTION" Pro 10.6. The MS-DOS version will run in all DOS based PCs, Windows 3.1, '95, '98 & 2000 and Vista. These versions are available in the English only. The volcano data is often updated, and users of "ERUPTION" Pro 10.6 automatically receive updates, free of charge, as they occur.
| Forecasting the time, place, and character of a volcanic eruption is one of the major goals of volcanology. It is also one of the most difficult goals to achieve. The current goal in forecasting volcanic eruptions, and the precept of this software, is to provide the best possible forecasts based on the geologic history of the volcanoes under study as well as the day-to-day vital signs of the volcanoes in terms of surface deformation, micro-earthquakes, thermal imaging, COSPEC, gas emissions, tilt and other measurements. The software package, "ERUPTION" Pro 10.6 attempts to achieve these goals. "ERUPTION" Pro 10.6 performs analysis on loaded volcano eruption data from both historical and current eruption data. It produces three forecasts; a statistically projected next eruption year, the next forecasted beginning eruption year with an >50% probability of eruption occurrence, and finally, the next forecasted beginning eruption year with an >95% probability of eruption occurrence. To date, the analysis for the years 1998 through 2003 have been completed with the new version. Results, have continually improved an in 2003, "ERUPTION" Pro 10.4 finished the year with a 90.70% accuracy correctly forecasting 41 of 44 eruptions. The new "ERUPTION" Pro 10.6 hopefully, will do even better in the forthcoming years with the latest improvements to the software. |
A document illustrating the results of the programme by the author can be found here: